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There is no indication that air temperature and other climatic elements will this summer differ from the previous one, and that it will not reach new record values, says the director of the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology, Luka Mitrovic.
Among other things, he explains, this is suggested by the global natural phenomenon El Niño (warmer ocean) which causes unfavorable atmospheric movements.
“However, as its influence in the Pacific isn’t dominant this summer, we can expect the weather to be relatively stable”, said Mitrovic, explaining that we can only talk about climate trends, not the long-term weather prognosis.
“Numerical weather prediction is most reliable for 72 hours, or three days, with 90 percent probability. After that, its reliability decreases and then we are talking only about trends and projections. They show we are to expect a long, hot summer with only a little bit of cloudiness, precipitation and humidity, especially in the area of the Montenegrin coast and valleys of Zeta and River Moraca, which is the basic characteristic of the Mediterranean climate anyway”, said Mitrovic.
In the coastal and central parts of the country, temperatures will reach high, tropical values, and there will be even less precipitation. This is subject to the dominant influence of the anticyclone, which brings weather characteristic of North Africa, the area of the Sahara Desert.
“Several previous summer seasons were marked by a number of heat waves, when air temperatures exceed 37 and even 40 degrees. Last summer, one such heat wave lasted 10 days. Global climate developments indicate that heat waves are getting more frequent and lasting longer, and that we must all prepare and adapt. This summer should be no exception”, said Mitrovic.
North of the country could be different, he adds, because the summer has not yet started there. He believes rain in the afternoons is possible, just like in June and in the past few days.
“April was warmer than May, and in May, the climate was colder than normal. For the past 20 years, rarely any parameter was below average; they were generally above the climate norm. The explanation lies in the fact that we are in a moderate geographical zone where the impacts of numerous factors of the Atlantic, the Mediterranean, the Sahara and the European mainland meet, so the air masses converge and collide. Therefore, some weather events are more frequent and more intense, sudden changes happen, and we have the impression that all seasons happened in just one day. I would say, based on these indicators, that our climate is taking on the characteristics of the equatorial.. But there are no rules, it does not mean that each year must be like this, nature remains unpredictable despite the progress of weather science”, said Mr. Mitrovic.
Source: Cafe Del Montenegro