#Glasači #Izbori #Vijesti
Manipulations of public opinion research are often in elections in Montenegro and region, where the supervision of expert public is not great. However, Vijesti took a step further and used the research done for Social-Democrats and published it in their yesterday’s paper under the title “The coalition of three has 26,1%”.
Their manipulation is clear with one look at the tables that follow the text. Basic fact of this research is that it is not used to measure the voters body. The goal is to get an impression about parties’ standing, and their conclusion about the support to opposition three is just a mood of the voters towards SDP, URA and Demos.
Whether their reading of the results is pure amateurism or an intent for manipulations is to be judged by the public, but the facts remain. Offered answers in the research were: 1. I am certain 2. I probably will 3. I probably will not 4. I certainly will not 5. I do not know. Vijesti used the data and read it as certain votes, which is against the research’s methodology. If they would follow the same logic for the rest of the parties, DPS would have 50% of the votes, which is also not an accurate information.
Their logic also gives us that 13,6% voters would not vote for three parties should they form a coalition. URA would certainly lose 12,6% of their votes, Demos 7,2% and SDP 5,4%.
Public opinion research is based on the formulation of questions. If we wanted to know how many voters would vote for a certain party, the question would be who will you vote for in the elections. Those asked would give a clear answer. Vijesti used a research that was clearly not set up like this. This research was based on acquiring voters’ opinion on certain matters and their impression on parties and their activities.
Another logical matter arises: Why didn’t they publish the probability for other parties as well? Because DPS would then have 50%, and Positive 17%, which would prove the inaccuracy of their reading. The total of votes in their counting would then amount to over 300%. Their methodology of addition is fundamentally flawed.
The conclusions Vijesti did not make, but the tables demonstrate
The research shows that Positive and SDP have similar rating. “Very positive” for SDP is 6%, while Positive has 5%. “Somewhat positive” for SPD is 19% and for Positive 21%.
Whether the rating of SDP took a plunge or Positive rating increased is not clear. However, this informations is not accurate because it is based on Vijesti’s logic.
Here, we have a matter of reading the data gained in public opinion research. Those who ordered it wanted to demonstrate the strength of the opposition three in order to show their power. SDP would show that the coalition of SDP, Demos and URA means something on the political scene, while for two out of three of these parties, going alone on the elections would be a big risk.
This can also present a pressure for Demos to make the coalition with URA and SDP official, seeing as they are the only ones who have significant voters’ trust. For SDP and URA everything is up in the air.
Source: Cafe Del Montenegro