#IvanVuković #GeneralElections #Campaign
The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) will win the most votes in the elections, says professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences Ivan Vukovic. He believes that the Positive Montenegro (PCG), the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Social Democrats (SD) might be kingmakers in forming the future government.
Commenting on the current election campaign course, Vukovic called into mind that before it started he had said that he expected a high level of political tension and a low level of political culture.
He told MINA news agency that his expectations were largely fulfilled.
“But what seems much more important than politicians’ messages to voters over the past few weeks is the fact that on Sunday we are likely to have the most regular elections since multi-party elections were introduced in Montenegro”, Vukovic said.
He added that among politically-minded people in Montenegro, there is hardly anyone who doubts that the DPS will win far more votes than other parties.
However, when it comes to the final outcome of these elections, it does not necessarily mean anything, Vukovic said.
“Depending on how decisive DPS’ victory will be, the party could get into the situation to form the next government by itself or in a coalition with the close parties, or it can even remain in the minority compared to those parties which promise its ‘disempowerment’. In the latter case, a lot could depend on the SD and PCG’s election results and, possibly, on some minority parties”, Vukovic explained.
When it comes to the balance of power among opposition political entities, for a long time I had the impression that the Key coalition might emerge as the dominant political force.
As Vukovic explained, he counted on the popularity of (Miodrag) Lekic in one part of the electorate, operational capabilities of (Goran) Danilovic, a well-developed SNP party infrastructure and personal contribution of prominent individuals from the Civic Movement URA.
“But as the election campaign progresses, the Key coalition seemed increasingly inferior compared to the Democratic Front (DF), allowing it, for some reason, to dictate the pace of the race”, Vukovic said.
According to him, at the same time, URA’s impact within the coalition was increasingly fading, ending up in accepting the idea of organising the referendum on NATO membership.
“Thus the thing that could be the Key’s competitive advantage against the ideologically and politically monolithic DF platform disappeared”, Vukovic said.
He stated that URA was reduced within the Key coalition in the same way the Movement for Changes (PzP) was reduced within DF and therefore there are two almost identical political alliances and one of them, at the rhetoric level, is substantially more convincing.
“So I would be very surprised if DF did not win the most of votes within the opposition, as winning the most of parliament seats was its main goal in these elections, regardless of DF’s rhetoric”, said Vukovic.
According to Vukovic, the same thing can be applied for the Democratic Montenegro.
Vukovic reiterated that the Democrats prepared its performance in the October elections very well, primarily due to dedicated work in the field and the fact that its leadership consists of young people, without any political burden from the past.
“Montenegrin political public often tended to support such entities”, Vukovic said.
That’s why it seemed that the first election campaign might bring double-digit score to the Democrats.
“However the party’s campaign did not bring anything fundamentally new or different in comparison with political competition”, said Vukovic.
He believes that PCG, SDP and SD are facing the “fight for survival on the biggest Montenegrin political scene”.
“At the same time, what makes the forthcoming elections very interesting, among other things, is the possibility that some of these three parties may be the so-called kingmakers in forming the future government”, said Vukovic.
He added that the key challenge for the leaders of SD and PCG was the need to explain to voters why they should support one of these two parties and not DPS.
Source: Cafe Del Montenegro